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While Arnerich Massena believes these forward-looking expectations are reasonable, we can provide no assurance of their accuracy. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to these expectations. Actual investment portfolio results may vary due to market risk, investment selection, timing, expenses, taxes, and other factors. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance.
In the 2010s, U.S. equities hurtled to new highs in the wake of the global financial crisis. However, as we move into the 2020s, the question on many investors’ minds is, “can these good times continue?” Our short answer is yes, but the location of the good times may change. Read more
With the U.S. stock market reaching all-time highs, this is a good time for investors to check their global stock portfolios for evidence of home bias and recency bias — two of the most widespread and potentially dangerous investment behavioral biases. Read more
“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The Intelligent Investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
~Jason Zweig, The Intelligent Investor
The first quarter of 2019 marks a full ten years since the March 9, 2009 bottom of the U.S. stock market during the financial crisis. This quarter, millions of investors opened their first quarter 2019 statements to be greeted by robust ten-year performance in their U.S. stocks: Read more
On November 6, 2018, voters will elect candidates to fill 33 seats in the U.S. Senate and 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
While there’s no way to know for sure how stocks will react to the midterm election, a review of history reveals an interesting relationship between midterm Senate gains or losses by the then-current President’s party and the subsequent year’s stock market return. Read more
Apple and Amazon have both reached the previously unimaginable trillion-dollar milestone (though Amazon has since dipped back below the landmark). It’s a mind-boggling amount of money. In real-world terms, one trillion dollars is equivalent to $3,070 for every person in the United States, or $131 for every person in the world. Read more
After hitting an all-time low in 2017, investor expectations of stock market volatility have started to rise this year. While these market jitters are at least partly due to eventful headlines, there’s another, more fundamental explanation that may be playing a role: The Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its bond holdings may be contributing to increased volatility in the stock market. Read more
With the recent passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the United States no longer has the highest top corporate tax rate among the world’s advanced economies.
The yield on global investment grade bonds has recently touched an all-time low of 1.1%, with over 30% of the world’s government bonds paradoxically trading at yields below zero.1 Read more
The most famous Presidential Election Cycle Theory, first postulated by Yale Hirsch in the 1968 Stock Trader’s Almanac, suggests there is a prominent 48-month stock market cycle that corresponds to the four-year Presidential term.
Recently, we did our own analysis; what effect does the Presidential cycle have on stocks, and should we be paying attention? Read more
It takes courage and patience to invest in stocks. Fortunately, those investors who possess these characteristics have usually been compensated for their efforts.