Author Archives: Arthur Coyne

About Arthur Coyne

Senior Research Analyst

The Dangerous Illusion of Recency Bias: What the past ten years won’t tell you

 

“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The Intelligent Investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

~Jason Zweig, The Intelligent Investor

The first quarter of 2019 marks a full ten years since the March 9, 2009 bottom of the U.S. stock market during the financial crisis. This quarter, millions of investors opened their first quarter 2019 statements to be greeted by robust ten-year performance in their U.S. stocks: Read more »

How Will the Midterm Election Affect Stocks Next Year?

On November 6, 2018, voters will elect candidates to fill 33 seats in the U.S. Senate and 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

While there’s no way to know for sure how stocks will react to the midterm election, a review of history reveals an interesting relationship between midterm Senate gains or losses by the then-current President’s party and the subsequent year’s stock market return. Read more »

A Sea Change in Volatility?

After hitting an all-time low in 2017, investor expectations of stock market volatility have started to rise this year. While these market jitters are at least partly due to eventful headlines, there’s another, more fundamental explanation that may be playing a role: The Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its bond holdings may be contributing to increased volatility in the stock market. Read more »

The Corner of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue: Tracking the Presidential Stock Cycle

The most famous Presidential Election Cycle Theory, first postulated by Yale Hirsch in the 1968 Stock Trader’s Almanac, suggests there is a prominent 48-month stock market cycle that corresponds to the four-year Presidential term.

Recently, we did our own analysis; what effect does the Presidential cycle have on stocks, and should we be paying attention? Read more »