Author Archives: Arthur Coyne

About Arthur Coyne

Senior Research Analyst

Capital Market Outlook: What’s in Store for the 2020s?

To view a larger version, click here: Capital markets outlook

While Arnerich Massena believes these forward-looking     expectations are reasonable, we can provide no assurance  of their accuracy. Expected returns for each asset class  are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or   lower, as they have in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to these expectations.  Actual investment portfolio results may vary due to market risk, investment selection, timing, expenses, taxes, and  other factors. This information is not intended as a      recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance.

In the 2010s, U.S. equities hurtled to new highs in the wake of the global financial crisis. However, as we move into the 2020s, the question on many investors’ minds is, “can these good times continue?” Our short answer is yes, but the location of the good times may change. Read more »

The Dangerous Illusion of Recency Bias: What the past ten years won’t tell you

 

“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The Intelligent Investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

~Jason Zweig, The Intelligent Investor

The first quarter of 2019 marks a full ten years since the March 9, 2009 bottom of the U.S. stock market during the financial crisis. This quarter, millions of investors opened their first quarter 2019 statements to be greeted by robust ten-year performance in their U.S. stocks: Read more »

How Will the Midterm Election Affect Stocks Next Year?

On November 6, 2018, voters will elect candidates to fill 33 seats in the U.S. Senate and 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

While there’s no way to know for sure how stocks will react to the midterm election, a review of history reveals an interesting relationship between midterm Senate gains or losses by the then-current President’s party and the subsequent year’s stock market return. Read more »

A Sea Change in Volatility?

After hitting an all-time low in 2017, investor expectations of stock market volatility have started to rise this year. While these market jitters are at least partly due to eventful headlines, there’s another, more fundamental explanation that may be playing a role: The Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its bond holdings may be contributing to increased volatility in the stock market. Read more »

The Corner of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue: Tracking the Presidential Stock Cycle

The most famous Presidential Election Cycle Theory, first postulated by Yale Hirsch in the 1968 Stock Trader’s Almanac, suggests there is a prominent 48-month stock market cycle that corresponds to the four-year Presidential term.

Recently, we did our own analysis; what effect does the Presidential cycle have on stocks, and should we be paying attention? Read more »