Author Archives: Arthur Coyne

About Arthur Coyne

Senior Research Analyst

How Will the Midterm Election Affect Stocks Next Year?

On November 6, 2018, voters will elect candidates to fill 33 seats in the U.S. Senate and 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

While there’s no way to know for sure how stocks will react to the midterm election, a review of history reveals an interesting relationship between midterm Senate gains or losses by the then-current President’s party and the subsequent year’s stock market return. Read more »

A Sea Change in Volatility?

After hitting an all-time low in 2017, investor expectations of stock market volatility have started to rise this year. While these market jitters are at least partly due to eventful headlines, there’s another, more fundamental explanation that may be playing a role: The Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its bond holdings may be contributing to increased volatility in the stock market. Read more »

The Corner of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue: Tracking the Presidential Stock Cycle

The most famous Presidential Election Cycle Theory, first postulated by Yale Hirsch in the 1968 Stock Trader’s Almanac, suggests there is a prominent 48-month stock market cycle that corresponds to the four-year Presidential term.

Recently, we did our own analysis; what effect does the Presidential cycle have on stocks, and should we be paying attention? Read more »

Halloween Debt Ceiling Crisis IV

By November 3rd, the U.S. government will run out of cash. Again.

Judging from the U.S. government shutdowns of 1995-1996 and the debt ceiling crises of 2011 and 2013, we might be tempted to assume that this year’s debt crisis will follow the same tried-and-true storyline: A few weeks of dramatic fiscal brinksmanship, followed by a bold yet pragmatic budget deal. Read more »

Securities and Exchange Commission Proposes Reforms to Enhance Liquidity Risk Management

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed a set of reforms that seek to enhance liquidity risk management by open-end funds such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The proposed rules would require mutual funds and ETFs to implement liquidity risk management programs and enhanced disclosures regarding fund liquidity and redemption practices. Read more »