Category Archives: Economic trends

An Anxious October: A note from Arnerich Massena co-CIO Bryan Shipley, CFA, CAIA

October saw stock markets across the globe suffer one of the sharpest monthly declines since the global financial crisis in 2008. With the exception of stable, dividend-oriented sectors like REITs and Utilities, nearly the entire market experienced lower stock prices during the month. High growth stocks experienced the most acute pain, with price drops striking market darlings such as Amazon, Netflix, and Google, but even longstanding industrial stocks suffered double-digit losses in some instances. Read more »

How Will the Midterm Election Affect Stocks Next Year?

On November 6, 2018, voters will elect candidates to fill 33 seats in the U.S. Senate and 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

While there’s no way to know for sure how stocks will react to the midterm election, a review of history reveals an interesting relationship between midterm Senate gains or losses by the then-current President’s party and the subsequent year’s stock market return. Read more »

Arnerich Massena Publishes New White Paper: Impact Investing: Why, What, How

“The Global Impact Investing Network reports from their 2017 Annual Investor Survey that there is now at least $114 billion of impact investing assets under management and that impact investing is growing by about 18% per year,” begins Arnerich Massena’s newest white paper publication: Impact Investing: Why, What, How. In this publication, the authors help investors navigate through the sea of acronyms associated with impact investing – SRI (socially responsible investing), ESG (environmental, social, governance), CSR (corporate social responsibility), etc. – to understand: Read more »

Is Protectionism the New Normal?

The age of globalization began in the 1940s with the global post-war recovery; the Bretton Woods Treaty, the creation of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade collectively provided enough stability to make widespread global trade possible. Decades of globalization have brought not only an increase in international trade, but an increasingly connected world, with goods, people, and information crossing borders, as well as the birth of multinational corporations. But the 2008 crisis may have signaled a turning point, after which the globalization train seemed to curve toward protectionism. Brexit, the election of Trump, and the current trade wars evidence an escalation of this shift. Does this mean that the age of globalization is over, or are we just veering temporarily into protectionist territory? Read more »

Investing in What We Need: Food/Agriculture

Food is as critical to human survival as water, and sustaining an expanding population will require exponentially more efficient food production and sourcing. The United Nations estimates that the current global population of 7.3 billion people will grow to 9.7 billion by 2050. Life expectancy has also increased significantly among poorer countries and is expected to continue trending upward. What all of this means, of course, is that we have a growing number of mouths to feed. It’s estimated that agricultural productivity will need to rise by at least 60% to meet the needs of the global population by 2050.1 Production in developing countries, where population growth will be highest, will need to nearly double.2 Read more »

Investing in What We Need: Life Sciences

“It is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver.” – Gandhi

Humans are encountering a dichotomous situation in which we face both increasing threats to our wellbeing and rapidly emerging opportunities for improving it. Above and beyond the environmental threats mentioned in our unintended consequences blog post, we face additional threats to health through: Read more »

Major Indexes Add a New Sector to Combat Concentration: Communication Services Coming to the S&P 500

There’s no doubt that Technology stocks have dominated the U.S. large cap equity space. In past posts, we’ve discussed the concentration of the giant FAANG stocks and the fact that large cap equity indexes like the S&P 500 are heavily tilted toward the Technology sector, with tech making up 26% of the S&P 500.1 The industry has recognized the too-heavy tech weighting, and we are about to see a significant change to the sector structure. S&P Dow Jones and MSCI Indexes will be adding a new sector – Communications Services – and moving some of the tech giants, including Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Facebook, and Netflix, into this new sector. The Communications Services sector will replace its previously named counterpart, Telecommunications Services. Read more »